Where the NM Semifinalists are in 2017

Counselors and families have been curious about the impact of the new PSAT on National Merit since the last pencil was put down in October 2015. Would it lower/raise the number of Semifinalists at my school? Would it mean a higher/lower cutoff for my state? Which states would change the most? How does it all work?

The one thing we knew before the test was even administered was that the number of Semifinalists in California would be approximately the same as in prior years — 2,100. The Semifinalist target for a state is determined by the number of high school juniors it has as a percentage of all U.S. high school juniors. This ensures national representation and means that the number of statewide awards does not vary much from year-to-year.  [For information about the National Merit cutoffs for all 50 states and for an explanation about how the National Merit process works, I recommend the preceding links.]

What makes California a particularly interesting petri dish is that it is the most populous state and an incredibly diverse one. Since the cutoff is the same in every town, city, and county in the state, we can make some observations that are not applicable across state lines.

National Merit Semifinalists by High School

One of the most common questions received is “How many Semifinalists were there at my school?” I compiled data for the last three years on the approximately 6,300 Semifinalists over that period. For the classes of 2015, 2016, and 2017 combined, 565 California high schools had at least 1 Semifinalist. A total of 53 homeschooled Semifinalists came from 41 different communities over the same period. While the breadth of high schools is impressive, the concentration is high. The top 12 high schools have more than a quarter of all Semifinalists. The top 36 schools enroll about 50% of the students continuing on to the Finalist and Scholar portions of the program.

School	City	NMSF 2017	Chg	NMSF 2016	Chg	NMSF 2015
Mission San Jose HS	Fremont	84	0	84	-23	107
Troy HS	Fullerton	60	6	54	15	39
Lynbrook HS	San Jose	49	1	48	-20	68
Monta Vista HS	Cupertino	49	-8	57	-11	68
Harker School	San Jose	45	-6	51	-8	59
Torrey Pines HS	San Diego	43	5	38	-7	45
Dougherty Valley HS	San Ramon	40	-5	45	-10	55
University HS	Irvine	36	14	22	-26	48
Canyon Crest Academy	San Diego	35	-3	38	17	21
Henry M. Gunn HS	Palo Alto	35	-11	46	10	36
Leland HS	San Jose	34	0	34	8	26
Palo Alto HS	Palo Alto	32	-1	33	8	25
Saratoga HS	Saratoga	31	-8	39	1	38
Amador Valley HS	Pleasanton	29	-5	34	0	34
St. Francis HS	Mountain View	27	6	21	2	19
Arcadia HS	Arcadia	27	12	15	-16	31
Harvard-Westlake School	Studio City	26	-5	31	6	25
Westview HS	San Diego	23	-8	31	6	25
Westlake HS	Westlake Village	21	9	12	-3	15
Del Norte HS	San Diego	21	-4	25	8	17
Oxford Academy	Cypress	20	5	15	2	13
Cupertino HS	Cupertino	20	-5	25	-3	28
Homestead HS	Cupertino	19	-4	23	4	19
Northwood HS	Irvine	19	-9	28	-2	30
Irvington HS	Fremont	19	-7	26	-6	32
Bellarmine College Preparatory	San Jose	18	3	15	-2	17
Evergreen Valley HS	San Jose	17	-10	27	11	16
Diamond Bar HS	Diamond Bar	17	-6	23	2	21
Davis HS	Davis	16	5	11	-1	12
Archbishop Mitty HS	San Jose	16	-6	22	8	14
Lowell HS	San Francisco	16	11	5	-10	15
Los Altos HS	Los Altos	15	0	15	6	9
Menlo School	Atherton	15	2	13	-1	14
College Preparatory School	Oakland	15	-5	20	6	14
American HS	Fremont	15	-3	18	3	15
The Bishop's School	La Jolla	15	2	13	-5	18
Walnut HS	Walnut	15	1	14	-7	21
Palos Verdes Peninsula HS	Rolling Hills Estates	14	4	10	-19	29
Nueva School	San Mateo	14	14	0	0	0
Newbury Park HS	Newbury Park	13	7	6	-2	8
Mira Loma HS	Sacramento	13	4	9	-3	12
Irvine HS	Irvine	13	6	7	-6	13
Scripps Ranch HS	San Diego	13	1	12	-1	13
Valencia HS	Placentia	12	3	9	6	3
Menlo-Atherton HS	Atherton	12	-1	13	5	8
Miramonte HS	Orinda	12	7	5	-4	9
Arnoldo O. Beckman HS	Irvine	12	-5	17	3	14
Foothill HS	Pleasanton	12	-5	17	-2	19
Valley Christian HS	San Jose	11	-3	14	9	5
Campolindo HS	Moraga	11	5	6	-4	10
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Hillsborough	11	6	5	-6	11
North Hollywood HS	North Hollywood	11	4	7	-14	21
Mount Carmel HS	San Diego	10	5	5	-1	6
La Jolla HS	La Jolla	10	3	7	-1	8
Polytechnic School	Pasadena	10	-2	12	3	9
San Marino HS	San Marino	10	-2	12	2	10
Mountain View HS	Mountain View	10	-5	15	-2	17
Aragon HS	San Mateo	9	-4	13	11	2
La Canada HS	La Canada	9	1	8	4	4
Dublin HS	Dublin	9	2	7	0	7
Los Gatos HS	Los Gatos	9	0	9	1	8
Piedmont HS	Piedmont	9	-2	11	2	9
Whitney HS	Cerritos	9	-4	13	0	13
Woodbridge HS	Irvine	9	-4	13	-6	19
California HS	San Ramon	9	2	7	-14	21
Santa Margarita Catholic School	Rancho Santa Margarita	8	1	7	2	5
Carlmont HS	Belmont	8	-8	16	10	6
Crescenta Valley HS	La Crescenta	8	1	7	0	7
San Francisco University HS	San Francisco	8	-4	12	5	7
Palos Verdes HS	Palos Verdes Estates	7	3	4	2	2
San Mateo HS	San Mateo	7	4	3	0	3
James S. Logan HS	Union City	7	4	3	-2	5
Mira Costa HS	Manhattan Beach	7	0	7	2	5
Monte Vista HS	Danville	7	-3	10	3	7
South Pasadena HS	South Pasadena	7	-1	8	0	8
Rancho Bernardo HS	San Diego	7	-3	10	1	9
Castilleja School	Palo Alto	7	1	6	-6	12
Maria Carrilo HS	Santa Rosa	6	3	3	0	3
Head-Royce School	Oakland	6	-2	8	4	4
Beverly Hills HS	Beverly Hills	6	3	3	-2	5
The Thacher School	Ojai	6	2	4	-1	5
Pacific Ridge School	Carlsbad	6	2	4	-2	6
Flintridge Preparatory School	La Canada	6	-6	12	6	6
Albany HS	Albany	6	3	3	-5	8
Berkeley HS	Berkeley	6	-4	10	-5	15
Mills HS	Millbrae	5	3	2	1	1
Oakland Technical HS	Oakland	5	3	2	0	2
Branson School	Ross	5	2	3	1	2
Sunny Hills HS	Fullerton	5	-4	9	7	2
Glen A. Wilson HS	Hacienda Heights	5	4	1	-2	3
Alameda HS	Alameda	5	3	2	-1	3
Orange County School of the Arts	Santa Ana	5	3	2	-1	3
Washington HS	Fremont	5	4	1	-3	4
Agoura HS	Agoura Hills	5	3	2	-2	4
Acalanes HS	Lafayette	5	2	3	-1	4
Granada Hills Charter HS	Granada Hills	5	-2	7	3	4
Chadwick School	Palos Verdes Peninsula	5	4	1	-4	5
Lick-Wilmerding HS	San Francisco	5	0	5	0	5
Milpitas HS	Milpitas	5	0	5	-4	9
Hillsdale HS	San Mateo	5	3	2	2	0
Adolfo Camarillo HS	Camarillo	5	1	4	4	0
Canyon HS	Anaheim	5	-2	7	7	0
Chaminade College Preparatory School	West Hills	4	3	1	0	1
La Jolla Country Day School	La Jolla	4	0	4	3	1
Great Oak HS	Temecula	4	4	0	-1	1
John W. North HS	Riverside	4	3	1	-1	2
Prospect HS	Saratoga	4	3	1	-1	2
Clovis North HS	Fresno	4	2	2	0	2
Centennial HS	Corona	4	-1	5	3	2
Notre Dame HS	San Jose	4	-1	5	3	2
South HS	Torrance	4	3	1	-2	3
Las Lomas	Walnut Creek	4	3	1	-2	3
West Ranch HS	Valencia	4	2	2	-1	3
Oakridge HS	El Dorado Hills	4	1	3	0	3
Trabuco Hills HS	Mission Viejo	4	-2	6	3	3
Corona del Mr HS	Newport Beach	4	-3	7	3	4
La Costa Canyon HS	Carlsbad	4	2	2	-3	5
San Dieguito Academy	Encinitas	4	0	4	-1	5
Aliso Niguel HS	Aliso Viejo	4	-2	6	1	5
Mark Keppel HS	Alhambra	4	-3	7	2	5
Marlborough School	Los Angeles	4	1	3	-3	6
Palisades Charter HS	Pacific Palisades	4	-2	6	0	6
Oak Park HS	Oak Park	4	-3	7	1	6
San Ramon Valley HS	Danville	4	0	4	-4	8
Dos Pueblos HS	Goleta	4	1	3	-6	9
Santa Monica HS	Santa Monica	4	0	4	-5	9
Basis Independent Silicon Valley	San Jose	4	2	2	2	0
De La Salle HS	Concord	3	2	1	0	1
San Clemente HS	San Clemente	3	1	2	1	1
Gabrielino HS	San Gabriel	3	1	2	1	1
Brentwood School	Los Angeles	3	0	3	2	1
Fremont HS	Sunnyvale	3	0	3	2	1
Burlingame HS	Burlingame	3	3	0	-1	1
St. Margaret's Episcopal School	San Juan Capistrano	3	2	1	-1	2
Homeschool	San Jose	3	1	2	0	2
Folsom HS	Folsom	3	0	3	1	2
Loyola HS	Los Angeles	3	0	3	1	2
Tesoro HS	Rancho Santa Margarita	3	-1	4	2	2
Huntington Beach HS	Huntington Beach	3	3	0	-2	2
Oakmont HS	Roseville	3	3	0	-2	2
El Camino Real Charter HS	Woodland Hills	3	3	0	-2	2
West HS	Torrance	3	0	3	0	3
Francis W. Parker School	San Diego	3	-3	6	3	3
Crossroads School	Santa Monica	3	3	0	-3	3
Glendora HS	Glendora	3	1	2	-2	4
Cate School	Carpinteria	3	0	3	-1	4
Los Alamitos HS	Los Alamitos	3	0	3	-1	4
Poway HS	Poway	3	1	2	-3	5
Los Osos HS	Rancho Cucamonga	3	1	2	-3	5
Fountain Valley HS	Fountain Valley	3	-6	9	4	5
Redwood HS	Larkspur	3	3	0	-5	5
Castro Valley HS	Castro Valley	3	-1	4	-2	6
Sage Hill School	Newport Beach	3	-4	7	1	6
Temple City HS	Temple City	3	-2	5	-2	7
Piedmont Hills HS	San Jose	3	-8	11	3	8
Sierra Canyon School	Chatsworth	3	2	1	1	0
Coronado HS	Coronado	3	2	1	1	0
University Preparatory Academy	San Jose	3	2	1	1	0
Viewpoint School	Calabasas	3	1	2	2	0
Marina HS	Huntington Beach	3	1	2	2	0
Granada HS	Livermore	3	1	2	2	0
Saugus HS	Saugus	3	1	2	2	0
Oaks Christian HS	Westlake Village	3	1	2	2	0
Westmont HS	Campbell	3	0	3	3	0
Athenian School	Danville	3	0	3	3	0
Vista del Lago HS	Folsom	3	0	3	3	0
Granite Bay HS	Granite Bay	3	0	3	3	0
Stevenson HS	Pebble Beach	3	-3	6	6	0
Buena Park HS	Buena Park	3	3	0	0	0
Sage Creek HS	Carlsbad	3	3	0	0	0
Classical Academy HS	Escondido	3	3	0	0	0
Willow Glen HS	San Jose	3	3	0	0	0
San Marcos HS	San Marcos	3	3	0	0	0
Bella Vista HS	Fair Oaks	2	1	1	0	1
Garden Grove HS	Garden Grove	2	1	1	0	1
Santa Teresa HS	San Jose	2	1	1	0	1
J Serra Catholic HS	San Juan Capistrano	2	1	1	0	1
Oakwood School	North Hollywood	2	0	2	1	1
San Marcos HS	Santa Barbara	2	0	2	1	1
Dana Hills HS	Dana Point	2	-1	3	2	1
Santa Cruz HS	Santa Cruz	2	-1	3	2	1
California Academy of Mathematics and Science	Carson	2	-2	4	3	1
Pinewood School	Los Altos Hills	2	-2	4	3	1
Silver Creek HS	San Jose	2	-2	4	3	1
York School	Monterey	2	-3	5	4	1
Arroyo Grande HS	Arroyo Grande	2	2	0	-1	1
Calabasas HS	Calabasas	2	2	0	-1	1
Jesuit HS	Carmichael	2	2	0	-1	1
Alison Early College HS	Fremont	2	2	0	-1	1
West Campus HS	Sacramento	2	2	0	-1	1
Branham HS	San Jose	2	2	0	-1	1
Santa Clara HS	Santa Clara	2	2	0	-1	1
El Toro HS	Lake Forest	2	1	1	-1	2
William S. Hart HS	Newhall	2	1	1	-1	2
Newport Harbor HS	Newport Beach	2	1	1	-1	2
Redlands HS	Redlands	2	1	1	-1	2
San Gabriel HS	San Gabriel	2	1	1	-1	2
University HS	Fresno	2	0	2	0	2
Ruben S. Ayala HS	Chino Hills	2	-2	4	1	3
Culver City HS	Culver City	2	-2	4	1	3
University City HS	San Diego	2	-2	4	1	3
Claremont HS	Claremont	2	-1	3	-1	4
John A. Rowland HS	Rowland Heights	2	-4	6	2	4
Sacred Heart Preparatory School	Atherton	2	0	2	-3	5
Stockdale HS	Bakersfield	2	-1	3	-2	5
Carlsbad HS	Carlsbad	2	-4	6	1	5
Fairmont Preparatory Academy	Anaheim	2	-2	4	-2	6
Bakersfield HS	Bakersfield	2	1	1	1	0
Benicia HS	Benicia	2	1	1	1	0
Bonita Vista HS	Chula Vista	2	1	1	1	0
Floyd B. Buchanan HS	Clovis	2	1	1	1	0
Clovis West HS	Fresno	2	1	1	1	0
Pioneer HS	San Jose	2	1	1	1	0
Santa Barbara HS	Santa Barbara	2	1	1	1	0
De Toledo HS	West Hills	2	1	1	1	0
William Howard Taft HS	Woodland Hills	2	1	1	1	0
Woodside Priory School	Portola Valley	2	0	2	2	0
Adrian C. Wilcox HS	Santa Clara	2	-1	3	3	0
Alta Loma HS	Alta Loma	2	2	0	0	0
Aptos HS	Aptos	2	2	0	0	0
St. Mary's College High School	Berkeley	2	2	0	0	0
Chico HS	Chico	2	2	0	0	0
Fremont Christian HS	Fremont	2	2	0	0	0
Livermore Valley Charter Preparatory HS	Livermore	2	2	0	0	0
Orange Lutheran	Orange	2	2	0	0	0
John Marshall Fundamental School	Pasadena	2	2	0	0	0
College Park HS	Pleasant Hill	2	2	0	0	0
International Polytechnic HS	Pomona	2	2	0	0	0
Citrus Valley HS	Redlands	2	2	0	0	0
Redondo Union HS	Redondo Beach	2	2	0	0	0
Western Sierra Collegiate Academy	Rocklin	2	2	0	0	0
Maranatha Christian Schools	San Diego	2	2	0	0	0
Summit Tahoma	San Jose	2	2	0	0	0
Rancho Buena Vista HS	Vista	2	2	0	0	0
West Covina HS	West Covina	2	2	0	0	0
El Cerrito HS	El Cerrito	1	0	1	0	1
Cosumnes Oakes HS	Elk Grove	1	0	1	0	1
Escondido HS	Escondido	1	0	1	0	1
Rosary Academy	Fullerton	1	0	1	0	1
Clark Magnet HS	La Crescenta	1	0	1	0	1
Damien HS	La Verne	1	0	1	0	1
Alexander Hamilton HS	Los Angeles	1	0	1	0	1
Mission Vista HS	Oceanside	1	0	1	0	1
Casa Grande HS	Petaluma	1	0	1	0	1
Pacific Collegiate School	Santa Cruz	1	0	1	0	1
Buckley School	Sherman Oaks	1	0	1	0	1
Torrance HS	Torrance	1	0	1	0	1
Tracy Joint Union HS	Tracy	1	0	1	0	1
Merrill F. West HS	Tracy	1	0	1	0	1
Laguna Hills HS	Laguna Hills	1	-1	2	1	1
Marymount HS	Los Angeles	1	-1	2	1	1
El Dorado HS	Placerville	1	-1	2	1	1
Sequoia HS	Redwood City	1	-1	2	1	1
Jewish Community HS of the Bay	San Francisco	1	-1	2	1	1
Academy of the Canyons	Santa Clarita	1	-1	2	1	1
Villa Park HS	Villa Park	1	-1	2	1	1
Sacred Heart Cathedral Preparatory	San Francisco	1	-2	3	2	1
Marin Academy	San Rafael	1	-2	3	2	1
Foothill HS	Santa Ana	1	-4	5	4	1
Canyon HS	Canyon Country	1	1	0	-1	1
Dixon HS	Dixon	1	1	0	-1	1
Escondido Charter HS	Escondido	1	1	0	-1	1
Christopher HS	Gilroy	1	1	0	-1	1
Paraclete HS	Lancaster	1	1	0	-1	1
Notre Dame Academy	Los Angeles	1	1	0	-1	1
Schurr HS	Montebello	1	1	0	-1	1
Ann Sobrato HS	Morgan Hill	1	1	0	-1	1
El Modena HS	Orange	1	1	0	-1	1
Riverside Polytechnic HS	Riverside	1	1	0	-1	1
St. Francis HS	Sacramento	1	1	0	-1	1
Oak Grove HS	San Jose	1	1	0	-1	1
Mater Dei HS	Santa Ana	1	1	0	-1	1
Ponderosa HS	Shingle Springs	1	1	0	-1	1
Ukiah HS	Ukiah	1	1	0	-1	1
Monte Vista Christian HS	Watsonville	1	1	0	-1	1
Homeschool	Fremont	1	0	1	-1	2
Moreau Catholic HS	Hayward	1	0	1	-1	2
Livermore	Livermore	1	0	1	-1	2
Windward	Los Angeles	1	0	1	-1	2
Ruth Asawa School of the Arts	San Francisco	1	0	1	-1	2
Cathedral Catholic HS	San Diego	1	-2	3	1	2
Servite HS	Anaheim	1	1	0	-2	2
Pacifica HS	Garden Grove	1	1	0	-2	2
Wildwood School	Los Angeles	1	1	0	-2	2
Novato HS	Novato	1	1	0	-2	2
Santa Susanna HS	Simi Valley	1	1	0	-2	2
Mission Viejo HS	Mission Viejo	1	0	1	-2	3
Upland HS	Upland	1	0	1	-2	3
Yorba Linda HS	Yorba Linda	1	0	1	-2	3
Presentation HS	San Jose	1	-1	2	-1	3
San Luis Obispo HS	San Luis Obispo	1	-1	2	-1	3
Capistrano Valley HS	Mission Viejo	1	-3	4	1	3
Cerritos HS	Cerritos	1	-5	6	3	3
The King's Academy	Sunnyvale	1	-5	6	3	3
Palm Desert HS	Palm Desert	1	1	0	-3	3
San Juan Hills HS	San Juan Capistrano	1	1	0	-3	3
Analy HS	Sebastopol	1	1	0	-3	3
Thousand Oaks HS	Thousand Oaks	1	-1	2	-2	4
Valencia HS	Valencia	1	-2	3	-1	4
Chino Hills HS	Chino Hills	1	-2	3	-2	5
Westridge School for Girls	Pasadena	1	1	0	-5	5
Valley Christian HS	Dublin	1	0	1	1	0
Southwest HS	El Centro	1	0	1	1	0
Arroyo HS	El Monte	1	0	1	1	0
Laguna Creek HS	Elk Grove	1	0	1	1	0
Pleasant Grove HS	Elk Grove	1	0	1	1	0
Tarbut V'Torah Community Day School	Irvine	1	0	1	1	0
St. Francis HS	La Canada	1	0	1	1	0
The Preuss School U.C.S.D.	La Jolla	1	0	1	1	0
New Covenant Academy	Los Angeles	1	0	1	1	0
Homeschool	Milpitas	1	0	1	1	0
James C. Enochs HS	Modesto	1	0	1	1	0
Campbell Hall	North Hollywood	1	0	1	1	0
Villanova Preparatory School	Ojai	1	0	1	1	0
La Salle HS	Pasadena	1	0	1	1	0
Rancho Cucamonga HS	Rancho Cucamonga	1	0	1	1	0
Sherman E. Burroughs HS	Ridgecrest	1	0	1	1	0
Ripon Christian HS	Ripon	1	0	1	1	0
Mount Everest Academy	San Diego	1	0	1	1	0
Orchard View School	Sebastopol	1	0	1	1	0
Notre Dame HS	Sherman Oaks	1	0	1	1	0
Bishop Montgomery HS	Torrance	1	0	1	1	0
Foothill Technology HS	Ventura	1	0	1	1	0
Woodside HS	Woodside	1	0	1	1	0
San Pasqual HS	Escondido	1	-1	2	2	0
Cleveland HS	Reseda	1	-1	2	2	0
Sacramento Country Day School	Sacramento	1	-1	2	2	0
Homeschool	San Diego	1	-1	2	2	0
Leigh HS	San Jose	1	-1	2	2	0
San Rafael HS	San Rafael	1	-1	2	2	0
Homeschool	Agoura Hills	1	1	0	0	0
California Crosspoint HS	Alameda	1	1	0	0	0
Antelope HS	Antelope	1	1	0	0	0
Northcoast Preparatory and Performing Arts Academy	Arcata	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Arroyo Grande	1	1	0	0	0
Placer HS	Auburn	1	1	0	0	0
Maybeck HS	Berkeley	1	1	0	0	0
Brea Olinda HS	Brea	1	1	0	0	0
Heritage HS	Brentwood	1	1	0	0	0
Lutheran HS of San Diego	Chula Vista	1	1	0	0	0
Mater Dei Catholic HS	Chula Vista	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Claremont	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Cupertino	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Danville	1	1	0	0	0
Warren HS	Downey	1	1	0	0	0
Grossmont HS	El Cajon	1	1	0	0	0
Grossmont Middle College HS	El Cajon	1	1	0	0	0
Etiwanda HS	Etiwanda	1	1	0	0	0
San Lorenzo Valley HS	Felton	1	1	0	0	0
Design Science HS	Fresno	1	1	0	0	0
Edison HS	Fresno	1	1	0	0	0
Fullerton Union HS	Fullerton	1	1	0	0	0
Bolsa Grande HS	Garden Grove	1	1	0	0	0
Gilroy HS	Gilroy	1	1	0	0	0
Dr. T.J. Owens Gilroy Early College Academy	Gilroy	1	1	0	0	0
Western Center Academy	Hemet	1	1	0	0	0
Ocean View HS	Huntington Beach	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Irvine	1	1	0	0	0
Pacific Academy	Irvine	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Junction City	1	1	0	0	0
Helix Charter HS	La Mesa	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Lancaster	1	1	0	0	0
Soar HS	Lancaster	1	1	0	0	0
Lodi Academy	Lodi	1	1	0	0	0
Ldi HS	Lodi	1	1	0	0	0
Archer School for Girls	Los Angeles	1	1	0	0	0
Eagle Rock HS	Los Angeles	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Los Angeles	1	1	0	0	0
Los Angeles County HS for the Arts	Los Angeles	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Manhattan Beach	1	1	0	0	0
Stone Ridge Christian HS	Merced	1	1	0	0	0
Fred C. Beyer HS	Modesto	1	1	0	0	0
Joseph A. Gregori HS	Modesto	1	1	0	0	0
Monrovia HS	Monrovia	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Montara	1	1	0	0	0
Morro Bay HS	Morro Bay	1	1	0	0	0
Calvary Murrieta Christian School	Murrieta	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Novato	1	1	0	0	0
Oakland Charter HS	Oakland	1	1	0	0	0
Orcutt Academy HS	Orcutt	1	1	0	0	0
Pacific Grove HS	Pacific Grove	1	1	0	0	0
Paradise HS	Paradise	1	1	0	0	0
Patterson HS	Patterson	1	1	0	0	0
Pinole Valley HS	Pinole	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Pleasant Hill	1	1	0	0	0
Rancho Mirage HS	Rancho Mirage	1	1	0	0	0
Rancho Santa Fe Horizon Prep	Rancho Mirage	1	1	0	0	0
Enterprise	Redding	1	1	0	0	0
Shasta	Redding	1	1	0	0	0
Grove HS	Redlands	1	1	0	0	0
Martin Luther King HS	Riverside	1	1	0	0	0
Technology HS	Rohnert Park	1	1	0	0	0
Rosemont HS	Sacramento	1	1	0	0	0
Capuchino HS	San Bruno	1	1	0	0	0
Point Loma HS	San Diego	1	1	0	0	0
San Diego HS of International Studies	San Diego	1	1	0	0	0
San Diego Jewish Academy	San Diego	1	1	0	0	0
Junipero Serra HS	San Diego	1	1	0	0	0
San Dimas HS	San Dimas	1	1	0	0	0
Cambrian Academy	San Jose	1	1	0	0	0
High Tech High-North County	San Marcos	1	1	0	0	0
St. Joseph Academy	San Marcos	1	1	0	0	0
San Pedro HS	San Pedro	1	1	0	0	0
Live Oak Academy	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Santee	1	1	0	0	0
Steel Canyon HS	Spring Valley	1	1	0	0	0
Stockton Early College Academy	Stockton	1	1	0	0	0
Weston Ranch HS	Stockton	1	1	0	0	0
Homeschool	Sunnyvale	1	1	0	0	0
Ambassador HS	Torrance	1	1	0	0	0
Twentynine Palms HS	Twentynine Palms	1	1	0	0	0
Trinity Classical Academy	Valencia	1	1	0	0	0
El Camino HS	Ventura	1	1	0	0	0
University Preparatory School	Victorville	1	1	0	0	0
Edgewood HS	West Covina	1	1	0	0	0
Temecula Preparatory School	Winchester	1	1	0	0	0
Encinal HS	Alameda	0	-1	1	0	1
Alhambra HS	Alhambra	0	-1	1	0	1
St. John Bosco HS	Bellflower	0	-1	1	0	1
Burbank HS	Burbank	0	-1	1	0	1
Armijo HS	Fairfield	0	-1	1	0	1
Glendale HS	Glendale	0	-1	1	0	1
John F. Kennedy HS	La Palma	0	-1	1	0	1
Tokay HS	Lodi	0	-1	1	0	1
Moorpark HS	Moorpark	0	-1	1	0	1
Justin-Siena HS	Napa	0	-1	1	0	1
Bishop O'Dowd HS	Oakland	0	-1	1	0	1
Redlands East Valley HS	Redlands	0	-1	1	0	1
La Sierra HS	Riverside	0	-1	1	0	1
Sir Francis Drake HS	San Anselmo	0	-1	1	0	1
St. Augustine HS	San Diego	0	-1	1	0	1
Urban School	San Francisco	0	-1	1	0	1
Georgiana Bruce Kirby Preparatory School	Santa Cruz	0	-1	1	0	1
Middle College HS	Stockton	0	-1	1	0	1
John C. Kimball HS	Tracy	0	-1	1	0	1
Berean Christian HS	Walnut Creek	0	-1	1	0	1
Arcata HS	Arcata	0	-2	2	1	1
Rocklin HS	Rocklin	0	-2	2	1	1
Lincoln HS	Stockton	0	-4	4	3	1
Homeschool	Alameda	0	0	0	-1	1
Acaciawood School	Anaheim	0	0	0	-1	1
Granite Hills HS	Apple Valley	0	0	0	-1	1
Independence HS	Bakersfield	0	0	0	-1	1
Valley Oaks Charter School	Bakersfield	0	0	0	-1	1
Desert Christian Academy	Bermuda Dunes	0	0	0	-1	1
Bishop Union HS	Bishop	0	0	0	-1	1
Mercy HS	Burlingame	0	0	0	-1	1
Army and Navy Academy	Carlsbad	0	0	0	-1	1
Valley Christian HS	Cerritos	0	0	0	-1	1
Inspire School of Arts and Sciences	Chico	0	0	0	-1	1
Pleasant Valley HS	Chico	0	0	0	-1	1
Webb School of California	Claremont	0	0	0	-1	1
Eleanor Roosevelt HS	Eastvale	0	0	0	-1	1
Academy of the Redwoods	Eureka	0	0	0	-1	1
Homeschool	Fairfax	0	0	0	-1	1
Fort Bragg HS	Fort Bragg	0	0	0	-1	1
Marin Catholic HS	Kentfield	0	0	0	-1	1
River Valley Charter School	Lakeside	0	0	0	-1	1
Mayfair HS	Lakewood	0	0	0	-1	1
Del Oro HS	Loomis	0	0	0	-1	1
Homeschool	Los Altos	0	0	0	-1	1
School for Independent Learners	Los Altos	0	0	0	-1	1
Dunn School	Los Olivos	0	0	0	-1	1
Mid Peninsula HS	Manhattan Beach	0	0	0	-1	1
Merced HS	Merced	0	0	0	-1	1
Vintage HS	Napa	0	0	0	-1	1
Nipomo HS	Nipomo	0	0	0	-1	1
John F Kennedy Middle College HS	Norco	0	0	0	-1	1
Norco HS	Norco	0	0	0	-1	1
San Marin HS	Novato	0	0	0	-1	1
Oakland School for the Arts	Oakland	0	0	0	-1	1
Pasadena HS	Pasadena	0	0	0	-1	1
St. Monica Academy	Pasadena	0	0	0	-1	1
Redlands Adventist Academy	Redlands	0	0	0	-1	1
Everest HS	Redwood City	0	0	0	-1	1
Reseda HS	Reseda	0	0	0	-1	1
Sherman Oaks Center for Enriched Studies	Reseda	0	0	0	-1	1
Whitney HS	Rocklin	0	0	0	-1	1
Roseville HS	Roseville	0	0	0	-1	1
Cajon HS	San Bernardino	0	0	0	-1	1
Homeschool	San Bruno	0	0	0	-1	1
Academy of Our Lady of Peace	San Diego	0	0	0	-1	1
Horizon Christian Academy	San Diego	0	0	0	-1	1
Mira Mesa HS	San Diego	0	0	0	-1	1
Balboa HS	San Francisco	0	0	0	-1	1
Homeschool	San Francisco	0	0	0	-1	1
Mount Pleasant HS	San Jose	0	0	0	-1	1
San Leandro HS	San Leandro	0	0	0	-1	1
Mary Star of the Sea HS	San Pedro	0	0	0	-1	1
Homeschool	Santa Barbara	0	0	0	-1	1
Homeschool	Santa Cruz	0	0	0	-1	1
Montgomery HS	Santa Rosa	0	0	0	-1	1
Venture Academy	Stockton	0	0	0	-1	1
Developing Virtue Secondary School	Talmage	0	0	0	-1	1
Tehachapi	Tehachapi	0	0	0	-1	1
Templeton HS	Templeton	0	0	0	-1	1
Turlock HS	Turlock	0	0	0	-1	1
Redwood HS	Visalia	0	0	0	-1	1
St. Francis Central Coast Catholic HS	Watsonville	0	0	0	-1	1
Trinity HS	Weaverville	0	0	0	-1	1
Pioneer HS	Woodland	0	0	0	-1	1
Yuba City HS	Yuba City	0	0	0	-1	1
Chinese Christian HS	Alameda	0	-1	1	-1	2
Carmel HS	Carmel	0	-1	1	-1	2
Tamalpais HS	Mill Valley	0	-1	1	-1	2
Quarry Lane School	Pleasanton	0	-1	1	-1	2
Patrick Henry HS	San Diego	0	-1	1	-1	2
Vivian Webb School	Claremont	0	-2	2	0	2
Long Beach Polytechnic HS	Long Beach	0	-2	2	0	2
Quartz Hill HS	Quartz Hill	0	-2	2	0	2
Salinas HS	Salinas	0	-2	2	0	2
John Burroughs HS	Burbank	0	0	0	-2	2
Herbert Hoover HS	Glendale	0	0	0	-2	2
Laguna Beach HS	Laguna Beach	0	0	0	-2	2
Francisco Bravo Medical Magnet HS	Los Angeles	0	0	0	-2	2
Terra Nova HS	Pacifica	0	0	0	-2	2
C.K. McClatchy HS	Sacramento	0	0	0	-2	2
International HS	San Francisco	0	0	0	-2	2
La Reina HS	Templeton	0	0	0	-2	2
Kehillah Jewish HS	Palo Alto	0	-1	1	-2	3
Simi Valley HS	Simi Valley	0	-1	1	-2	3
Junipero Serra HS	San Mateo	0	-2	2	-1	3
Van Nuys HS	Van Nuys	0	-6	6	3	3
Northgate HS	Walnut Creek	0	-3	3	-1	4
Los Angeles Center for Eriched Studies	Los Angeles	0	-4	4	0	4
Los Altos HS	Hacienda Heights	0	0	0	-4	4
Santa Rosa HS	Santa Rosa	0	0	0	-4	4
Sonoma Academy	Santa Rosa	0	0	0	-4	4
Cypress HS	Cypress	0	-3	3	-2	5
Arroyo HS	San Lorenzo	0	0	0	-5	5
Alameda Community Learning Center	Alameda	0	-1	1	1	0
Dozier-Libbey Medical HS	Antioch	0	-1	1	1	0
A.G.B.U Manoogian-Demirdjian School	Canoga Park	0	-1	1	1	0
Clovis HS	Clovis	0	-1	1	1	0
Clayton Valley HS	Concord	0	-1	1	1	0
John Swett HS	Crockett	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Cypress	0	-1	1	1	0
Wisdom Mission School	Cypress	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Diamond Bar	0	-1	1	1	0
Granite Hills HS	El Cajon	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Escondido	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Feather Falls	0	-1	1	1	0
John F. Kennedy HS	Fremont	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Gilroy	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Glencoe	0	-1	1	1	0
Hanford HS	Hanford	0	-1	1	1	0
Edison HS	Huntington Beach	0	-1	1	1	0
Greater San Diego Academy	Jamul	0	-1	1	1	0
La Mirada HS	La Mirada	0	-1	1	1	0
Bonita HS	La Palma	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Laguna Niguel	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Livermore	0	-1	1	1	0
Cathedral HS	Los Angeles	0	-1	1	1	0
Pilgrim School	Los Angeles	0	-1	1	1	0
Renaissance Arts Academy	Los Angeles	0	-1	1	1	0
Ribet Academy	Los Angeles	0	-1	1	1	0
Midland School	Los Olivos	0	-1	1	1	0
Malibu HS	Malibu	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Mission Viejo	0	-1	1	1	0
Oakwood School	Morgan Hill	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Oakland	0	-1	1	1	0
Casa Roble Fundamental HS	Orangevale	0	-1	1	1	0
Oxnard HS	Oxnard	0	-1	1	1	0
Rio Mesa HS	Oxnard	0	-1	1	1	0
Foothill HS	Palo Cedro	0	-1	1	1	0
Maranatha HS	Pasadena	0	-1	1	1	0
Mayfield School	Pasadena	0	-1	1	1	0
El Dorado HS	Placentia	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Redding	0	-1	1	1	0
Rosemead HS	Rosemead	0	-1	1	1	0
Bradshaw Christian School	Sacramento	0	-1	1	1	0
Christian Brothers HS	Sacramento	0	-1	1	1	0
Rio Americano HS	Sacramento	0	-1	1	1	0
Palma HS	Salinas	0	-1	1	1	0
Aquinas HS	San Bernardino	0	-1	1	1	0
High Tech High	San Diego	0	-1	1	1	0
Convent of the Sacred Heart HS	San Francisco	0	-1	1	1	0
Galileo Academy of Science and Technology	San Francisco	0	-1	1	1	0
Mission Hills HS	San Marcos	0	-1	1	1	0
Terra Linda HS	San Rafael	0	-1	1	1	0
Laguna Blanca School	Santa Barbara	0	-1	1	1	0
Golden Valley HS	Santa Clarita	0	-1	1	1	0
Redwood Adventist Academy	Santa Rosa	0	-1	1	1	0
Santa Ynez Valley Union HS	Santa Ynez	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Simi Valley	0	-1	1	1	0
Royal HS	Simi Valley	0	-1	1	1	0
Santa Fe Christian School	Solana Beach	0	-1	1	1	0
Beach HS	Soquel	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Stockton	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	Villa Park	0	-1	1	1	0
Vista HS	Vista	0	-1	1	1	0
Homeschool	West Hills	0	-1	1	1	0
Franklin HS	Elk Grove	0	-2	2	2	0
Loma Linda Academy	Loma Linda	0	-2	2	2	0
Immaculate Heart HS	Los Angeles	0	-2	2	2	0
Shalhevet HS	Los Angeles	0	-2	2	2	0
German International School of Silicon Valley	Mountain View	0	-2	2	2	0
Sonora HS	La Habra	0	-3	3	3	0
Fairfax HS	Los Angeles	0	-3	3	3	0
Milken Community School	Los Angeles	0	-3	3	3	0
Modesto HS	Modesto	0	-3	3	3	0
Murrieta Valley HS	Murrieta	0	-3	3	3	0
Independence HS	San Jose	0	-3	3	3	0
La Quinta HS	Westminster	0	-3	3	3	0
John Marshall HS	Los Angeles	0	-4	4	4	0
St. Ignatius College Preparatory School	San Francisco	0	-5	5	5	0

A look at the largest swings makes clear that the shift to the new PSAT is not the only thing that can change the number of Semifinalists at a school. The changes from 2015 to 2016 were actually more dramatic. A number of factors may be involved. First, public schools — partly by virtue of their size — dominate the ranks of schools at the top of the list. These high schools do not control their enrollment in the same way that private schools do. There may be an influx of new students (or an outflow of existing students) due to employment changes in a district or an increase in families with high school age children. It’s also beyond this post to look at how any potential changes in high school districts changed the landscape. Did a new high school open? Did consolidation occur?

State and National Heavyweights

Despite the amazing number of Semifinalists at Mission San Jose High School in Fremont, it does not enroll the most Semifinalists in the country. NMSC doesn’t make that information easy to find, but I know of at least two schools with more Semifinalists this year: Stuyvesant High School in New York City had 103 (of note is that they had 131 the previous year), and Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology in Virginia had 119 (down from 164!). Both of those schools are magnet schools, whereas Mission San Jose is open enrollment. MSJHS has only about 550 juniors.

Broader Distribution of Schools for the New PSAT

If the top schools didn’t change much more in 2017 than they did in 2016, it might seem as though the new PSAT had no impact. On the contrary, I think it did. The change was most visible when looking at the spread of student numbers. The table below shows that the new PSAT may have meant greater representation at schools that average less than a handful of Semifinalists each year.

What Caused the Reshuffling?

There are several ways in which the new PSAT may have reshuffled the numbers.

1) Content Change

The new PSAT is more aligned with Common Core curriculum than the old test. This concerned some schools that did not adhere to Common Core. It turns out, though, that the topics tested on the PSAT are fairly universal. Some of the flourishes such as “founding documents” and “global conversation” reading passages have turned out to be window-dressing more than score changing.

2) Leveling the Lopsided

The old PSATs 20-80 score ranges were meant to mimic the 200-800 ranges of the SAT. This mirroring neglected to account for the fact that SAT students are older, have covered more material, and have more testing under their belts. The highest range of PSAT scores was, therefore, underutilized and not always reliable. College Board decided to keep “vertical scaling” with the SAT while shifting the PSAT score range to 160-760. For most students, this was a non-issue. For the highest scoring students — those looking at National Merit honors — the top end change has implications for the “lopsided” student. On the old PSAT, a student well-versed on the reading and writing portions of the test might have racked up large gains by score 77-80 on these two sections. These students are now capped at 760, so their “pickup” in their strong suit is not as dramatic.

I was interested to see if this “disadvantage” to a lopsided student carried through to the school level. While it doesn’t leap out from California data, the numbers from Stuyvesant and Thomas Jefferson are interesting. These magnet schools often have lopsided students — in the case of Thomas Jefferson, presumably on the STEM side of the line. The latter’s 26% drop in Semifinalists may be more than a coincidence. They had only 129 Semifinalists in the class of 2015, though, so 2016 may have just been an unusual class or score distribution.

3) Score Inflation and Compression

These topics are intertwined with #2 and are explored in more depth in a separate piece. In short, the grading of the new PSAT (4 answer choices, no guessing penalty) contributed to an increase in scores. It became easier to reach most score levels — particularly at the low end. However, this inflation runs into an obstacle at the high end — there is nowhere left to go. In fact, there is even less room to go because of the shift from 80(0) to 760. Also, the wind-assist provided by guessing has little impact on a student who typically only misses a problem or two. The net result was that the Commended Student level was almost guaranteed to move up, while we expected that the upper ranges would move down. This was exactly what happened. States with SF cutoffs traditionally in the 202-210 range saw increases of 6 to 7 points. States such as California and New Jersey in the 222-225 range, in contrast, saw scores move down 1 to 3 points.

How do these cutoff changes play out within a state? One theory is that score compression had a leveling effect. Imagine a driving range that extends 300 yards. I don’t stand a chance of keeping up with a pro golfer at hitting balls into the net. Move the back net up to 150 yards, though, and I might occasionally hit 10 balls out of 10 and match the world’s best. This is an extreme exaggeration of the changes that occurred — the net got moved in. I believe the 3 factors did have at least some leveling effect. The content more closely reflected what is taught in virtually every school. The more typical scorer gained a slight advantage over the lopsided scorer. And the compressed range of scores made it just a bit more likely that good fortune came into play.

National Merit Semifinalists by City

City	NMSF 2017	NMSF 2016	NMSF 2015
San Jose	224	245	225
San Diego	166	178	150
Fremont	128	131	161
Irvine	92	88	124
Cupertino	89	105	115
Palo Alto	74	86	76
Fullerton	67	64	42
San Ramon	49	52	76
Pleasanton	41	52	55
Mountain View	37	38	36
Saratoga	35	40	40
San Mateo	35	20	8
San Francisco	32	36	36
La Jolla	30	25	27
Atherton	29	28	27
Arcadia	27	15	31
Oakland	27	32	22
Studio City	26	31	25
Westlake Village	24	14	15
Cypress	20	20	18
Los Angeles	20	36	22
Sacramento	18	14	16
Diamond Bar	17	24	21
La Canada	16	21	10
Davis	16	11	12
Los Altos	15	15	11
Carlsbad	15	12	17
Walnut	15	14	21
Danville	15	17	15
Pasadena	14	15	16
Rolling Hills Estates	14	10	29
North Hollywood	14	10	22
Newbury Park	13	6	8
Placentia	12	10	3
Orinda	12	5	9
Moraga	11	6	10
Hillsborough	11	5	11
Rancho Santa Margarita	11	11	7
Dublin	10	8	7
San Marino	10	12	10
Torrance	10	6	7
Cerritos	10	19	17
Fresno	10	5	4
Berkeley	9	10	15
Newport Beach	9	15	12
Los Gatos	9	9	8
Piedmont	9	11	9
La Crescenta	9	8	8
Manhattan Beach	8	7	6
Belmont	8	16	6
Anaheim	8	11	9
Santa Ana	7	7	5
South Pasadena	7	8	8
Santa Monica	7	4	12
Huntington Beach	7	3	2
Union City	7	3	5
Ojai	7	5	5
Palos Verdes Estates	7	4	2
Folsom	6	6	2
Valencia	6	5	7
Escondido	6	4	2
Riverside	6	2	4
Agoura Hills	6	2	4
Beverly Hills	6	3	5
Livermore	6	4	2
Albany	6	3	8
Alameda	6	5	7
West Hills	6	3	1
San Juan Capistrano	6	2	6
Santa Rosa	6	4	12
Mission Viejo	6	12	9
Milpitas	6	6	9
San Marcos	5	1	0
Camarillo	5	4	0
Santa Clara	5	3	1
Palos Verdes Peninsula	5	1	5
Millbrae	5	2	1
Granada Hills	5	7	4
Lafayette	5	3	4
Hacienda Heights	5	1	7
Calabasas	5	2	1
Redlands	5	2	4
Sunnyvale	5	9	4
Woodland Hills	5	1	2
San Gabriel	5	3	3
Ross	5	3	2
El Dorado Hills	4	3	3
Pacific Palisades	4	6	6
Santa Barbara	4	4	2
Goleta	4	3	9
Temecula	4	0	1
Encinitas	4	4	5
Walnut Creek	4	5	8
Rancho Cucamonga	4	3	5
Alhambra	4	8	6
Chula Vista	4	1	0
Garden Grove	4	1	3
Aliso Viejo	4	6	5
Bakersfield	4	4	7
Corona	4	5	2
Oak Park	4	7	6
Burlingame	3	0	2
Elk Grove	3	5	1
Claremont	3	5	7
San Clemente	3	2	1
Buena Park	3	0	0
Concord	3	2	1
Arroyo Grande	3	0	1
Poway	3	2	5
Temple City	3	5	7
Pebble Beach	3	6	0
Glendora	3	2	4
Granite Bay	3	3	0
Los Alamitos	3	3	4
Modesto	3	4	0
Saugus	3	2	0
Chino Hills	3	7	8
Pleasant Hill	3	0	0
Lancaster	3	0	1
Roseville	3	0	3
Larkspur	3	0	5
Campbell	3	3	0
Castro Valley	3	4	6
Fountain Valley	3	9	5
Orange	3	0	1
Santa Cruz	3	5	4
West Covina	3	0	0
Coronado	3	1	0
Gilroy	3	1	1
Chatsworth	3	1	0
Carpinteria	3	3	4
Lodi	2	1	1
Vista	2	1	0
Tracy	2	3	3
Aptos	2	0	0
Portola Valley	2	2	0
Fair Oaks	2	1	1
Carson	2	4	1
Benicia	2	1	0
Los Altos Hills	2	4	1
Lake Forest	2	1	2
Novato	2	0	3
Redding	2	1	0
San Rafael	2	6	1
Carmichael	2	0	1
Rowland Heights	2	6	4
Redondo Beach	2	0	0
Clovis	2	2	0
Culver City	2	4	3
Newhall	2	1	2
Rocklin	2	2	2
Ventura	2	1	0
Sebastopol	2	1	3
Dana Point	2	3	1
Sherman Oaks	2	2	1
Pomona	2	0	0
Alta Loma	2	0	0
Chico	2	0	2
Stockton	2	6	3
El Cajon	2	1	0
Monterey	2	5	1
Rancho Mirage	2	0	0
Murrieta	1	3	0
Rohnert Park	1	0	0
Ukiah	1	0	1
Pacific Grove	1	0	0
Woodside	1	1	0
San Dimas	1	0	0
Thousand Oaks	1	2	4
Junction City	1	0	0
Felton	1	0	0
Palm Desert	1	0	3
Brea	1	0	0
Antelope	1	0	0
Spring Valley	1	0	0
Merced	1	0	1
Dixon	1	0	1
San Luis Obispo	1	2	3
Redwood City	1	2	2
El Cerrito	1	1	1
Upland	1	1	3
Auburn	1	0	0
Villa Park	1	3	1
Paradise	1	0	0
Watsonville	1	0	2
San Pedro	1	0	1
Winchester	1	0	0
El Monte	1	1	0
Ridgecrest	1	1	0
Patterson	1	0	0
Laguna Hills	1	2	1
La Mesa	1	0	0
Arcata	1	2	1
Petaluma	1	1	1
Etiwanda	1	0	0
Monrovia	1	0	0
Downey	1	0	0
Santa Clarita	1	3	1
Twentynine Palms	1	0	0
Pinole	1	0	0
Reseda	1	2	2
Montara	1	0	0
Ripon	1	1	0
Placerville	1	2	1
Victorville	1	0	0
Santee	1	0	0
Hayward	1	1	2
Montebello	1	0	1
Hemet	1	0	0
La Verne	1	1	1
Oceanside	1	1	1
Canyon Country	1	0	1
Brentwood	1	0	0
Morgan Hill	1	1	1
Orcutt	1	0	0
Shingle Springs	1	0	1
Yorba Linda	1	1	3
Simi Valley	1	3	5
San Bruno	1	0	1
Morro Bay	1	0	0
El Centro	1	1	0
Napa	0	1	2
Soquel	0	1	0
Rosemead	0	1	0
Bermuda Dunes	0	0	1
Westminster	0	3	0
Bishop	0	0	1
Oxnard	0	2	0
Burbank	0	1	3
San Leandro	0	0	1
Canoga Park	0	1	0
Turlock	0	0	1
Carmel	0	1	2
Apple Valley	0	0	1
Crockett	0	1	0
Norco	0	0	2
Eastvale	0	0	1
Palo Cedro	0	1	0
Eureka	0	0	1
San Anselmo	0	1	1
Fairfax	0	0	1
Santa Ynez	0	1	0
Fairfield	0	1	1
Tehachapi	0	0	1
Feather Falls	0	1	0
Visalia	0	0	1
Fort Bragg	0	0	1
Yuba City	0	0	1
Glencoe	0	1	0
Moorpark	0	1	1
Glendale	0	1	3
Nipomo	0	0	1
Hanford	0	1	0
Orangevale	0	1	0
Jamul	0	1	0
Pacifica	0	0	2
Kentfield	0	0	1
Quartz Hill	0	2	2
La Habra	0	3	0
Salinas	0	3	2
La Mirada	0	1	0
San Bernardino	0	1	1
La Palma	0	2	1
San Lorenzo	0	0	5
Laguna Beach	0	0	2
Solana Beach	0	1	0
Laguna Niguel	0	1	0
Talmage	0	0	1
Lakeside	0	0	1
Templeton	0	0	3
Lakewood	0	0	1
Van Nuys	0	6	3
Loma Linda	0	2	0
Weaverville	0	0	1
Long Beach	0	2	2
Woodland	0	0	1
Loomis	0	0	1
Antioch	0	1	0
Los Olivos	0	1	1
Malibu	0	1	0
Mill Valley	0	1	2
Bellflower	0	1	1

A geographic analysis matches up with what was seen at the school level. On the one hand, the numbers are again dominated by a few. Santa Clara has 5% of California’s population but has 1/4 of the state’s NMSFs. Only 8 states have more Semifinalists than Santa Clara County! On the other hand, Semifinalists went to schools in 221 different cities (NMSC tracks where a student goes to school, not where he or she lives). In the previous two years, the figures were 204 and 206.  More high schools with one or two Semifinalists meant a greater probability that more cities had one or two Semifinalists. At risk of being a geo-geek, I should point out that NMSC tracks place names rather than cities. For example, Studio City is a neighborhood within the city of Los Angeles. And despite the fact that a private school such as Harvard-Westlake pulls from a wide geographic area, all its Semifinalists are placed in Studio City.

National Merit Semifinalists by County

I thought that county level data might be interesting because it would even out those sorts of placement anomalies. Given the concentration seen elsewhere, it’s not surprising that small counties are at a marked disadvantage — even beyond their size. The 23 counties with populations under 100,000 have a cumulative population about that of Delaware or Montana. If they seceded and formed their own state (or if they just had proportional representation within CA), they’d be allotted about 50 Semifinalists a year. As it is now, they average 3 per year.

County	2017 NMSF	2016 NMSF	2015 NMSF	Pop	NMSF/Yr Per 100K	Per Cap $
Los Angeles	342	349	376	9,974,203	3.6	$27,987
San Diego	244	233	208	3,183,143	7.2	$31,043
Orange	276	283	267	3,086,331	8.9	$34,416
Riverside	20	10	14	2,266,899	0.6	$23,660
San Bernardino	18	16	22	2,078,586	0.9	$21,384
Santa Clara	508	565	528	1,841,569	29.0	$42,666
Alameda	253	264	305	1,559,308	17.6	$36,439
Sacramento	32	27	21	1,450,277	1.8	$27,071
Contra Costa	105	93	124	1,081,232	9.9	$38,770
Fresno	12	7	4	948,844	0.8	$20,231
Kern	5	5	8	857,730	0.7	$20,467
Ventura	53	38	38	835,790	5.1	$33,308
San Francisco	32	36	36	829,072	4.2	$49,986
San Mateo	97	76	60	739,837	10.5	$47,198
San Joaquin	7	11	7	701,050	1.2	$22,642
Stanislaus	4	4	1	522,794	0.6	$21,729
Sonoma	10	6	16	491,790	2.2	$33,361
Tulare	0	0	1	451,108	0.1	$17,888
Santa Barbara	12	12	16	431,555	3.1	$30,526
Monterey	6	15	5	424,927	2.0	$25,048
Solano	3	2	2	421,624	0.6	$29,132
Placer	9	5	6	361,518	1.8	$35,711
San Luis Obispo	5	2	8	274,184	1.8	$30,392
Santa Cruz	7	6	6	267,203	2.4	$33,050
Merced	1		1	261,609	0.3	$18,464
Marin	12	11	16	256,802	5.1	$58,004
Butte	3	1	2	221,578	0.9	$24,430
Yolo	16	11	13	204,162	6.5	$28,080
El Dorado	6	5	5	181,465	2.9	$35,128
Shasta	2	2		178,520	0.7	$23,763
Imperial	1	1		177,026	0.4	$16,409
Madera	0	0	0	152,452	-	$17,797
Kings	0	1	0	151,390	0.2	$18,518
Napa	0	1	2	139,253	0.7	$35,092
Humboldt	1	2	2	134,876	1.2	$23,516
Nevada	0	0	0	98,606	-	$32,117
Sutter	0	0	1	95,067	0.4	$23,828
Mendocino	1		3	87,612	1.5	$23,712
Yuba	0	0	0	73,059	-	$19,586
Lake	0	0	0	64,209	-	$21,310
Tehama	0	0	0	63,284	-	$21,002
San Benito	0	0	0	56,888	-	$26,317
Tuolumne	0	0	0	54,347	-	$26,063
Calaveras	0	1	0	44,921	0.7	$29,296
Siskiyou	0	0	0	44,261	-	$22,482
Amador	0	0	0	37,159	-	$27,373
Lassen	0	0	0	33,356	-	$19,847
Del Norte	0	0	0	28,066	-	$19,424
Glenn	0	0	0	28,019	-	$21,698
Colusa	0	0	0	21,424	-	$22,211
Plumas	0	0	0	19,286	-	$2,9167
Inyo	0	0	0	18,439	-	$27,028
Mariposa	0	0	0	17,946	-	$28,327
Mono	0	0	1	14,193	2.3	$29,578
Trinity	1		1	13,515	4.9	$23,145
Modoc	0	0	0	9,335	-	$21,830
Sierra	0	0	0	3,019	-	$28,030
Alpine	0	0	0	1,202	-	$24,375

The Income Effect

It’s impossible to discuss the geographic spread of PSAT and SAT scores without touching on income. Standardized tests come under a good deal of criticism for their correlation with family income. I kept things at the county level for simplicity, since income by high school is not easily determined. In order to adjust for population and to even out annual fluctuations, I calculated the average number of Semifinalists per year per 100,000 of population.  For example, Contra Costa has a population of 1,081,000 and an average of just under 108 Semifinalists per year, so its measure is 9.9 SF/yr/100K population.

The chart below reflects the data for the most populous 30 counties. A logarithmic scale is used for the vertical axis to better reflect the relationship between the variables.

While there appears to be an exponential relationship between the two measures, it’s quite loose. Looking at comparably sized counties provides mixed evidence. For example, Marin county has the highest per capita income in the state, but its SF/yr/100K figure is only the 8th highest. Yolo County has half the per capita income as Marin and 80% of the population, but has an almost identical number of Semifinalists. On the other hand, among the most populous counties, Santa Clara’s income and Semifinalist level both stand out, and San Bernardino and Riverside are at the low end of both measures. Technology and educational centers likely come into play — drawing in brainpower not just statewide, but nationally and internationally.

In the end, achieving a top PSAT is an individual achievement — and a specialized one. It would be wrong to use such a narrow measurement to judge the educational achievements of schools and cities. When limiting the discussion to the National Merit Scholarship Program alone, though, this sort of analysis seems valid. Compass believes in an extremely expansive definition of test preparation; we try to inform about testing topics from micro to macro. We will continue to monitor the impact of the new PSAT and new SAT on everything from how it performs on individual questions to how it reshapes testing at high schools and colleges.